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Predicting dynamics of wildfire regimes in Yunnan, China

In recent years, the rise in global warming has significantly increased forest fires, affecting the environment and economy. Predicting forest fire dynamics under climate change is now a crucial research field. To address this need, this study focuses on the impact of climate change on forest fires,...

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Published in:Discover applied sciences 2024-02, Vol.6 (3), p.99, Article 99
Main Authors: Deng, Xiaofan, Li, Jiujin, Dai, Xiaoqing, Zhao, Junfan, Deng, Hang, Zhao, Fan
Format: Article
Language:English
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Summary:In recent years, the rise in global warming has significantly increased forest fires, affecting the environment and economy. Predicting forest fire dynamics under climate change is now a crucial research field. To address this need, this study focuses on the impact of climate change on forest fires, with a particular focus on the fire dynamics in Yunnan Province. This study utilizes the RegCM regional climate model and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) to simulate and analyze forest fire dynamics in Yunnan Province from 2019 to 2033 under three climate scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Findings indicate climate change will increase temperatures, alter humidity and wind speed, and reduce precipitation in Yunnan, extending the fire danger period, especially under RCP8.5 scenarios. The FWI values rise across Yunnan, particularly in the west under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The study concludes that future carbon emissions correlate with these changes, leading to more frequent, longer, and severe forest fires. This research is vital for managing and preventing forest fires in Yunnan, a region prone to such disasters.
ISSN:3004-9261
2523-3963
3004-9261
2523-3971
DOI:10.1007/s42452-024-05743-2