Remember Kabul? Reputation, strategic contexts, and American credibility after the Afghanistan withdrawal

We examine how a great power's past behavior toward an informal security partner affects the broader credibility of its security commitments, focusing on the implications of America's dramatic troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 as perceived by the U.S., South Korean, and Chinese pub...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Contemporary security policy 2024-04, Vol.45 (2), p.265-297
Main Authors: Kim, D.G., Byun, Joshua, Ko, Jiyoung
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Afghanistan
Afghanistan War
China
Credibility
Decisions
Experiments
Military withdrawals
Power
Regions
Reputation
Respondents
Security
South Korea
United States
Wisdom
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Summary:We examine how a great power's past behavior toward an informal security partner affects the broader credibility of its security commitments, focusing on the implications of America's dramatic troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 as perceived by the U.S., South Korean, and Chinese publics. Against conventional wisdom, we show that knowledge about a great power's decision to abandon an informal partner in one region of the globe can help increase confidence about its alliance commitments elsewhere. Our survey experiments identify a striking disjuncture: Although Americans tend to believe that the abandonment decision in Afghanistan will hurt their country's credibility in East Asia, no such effect is found in South Korea and China. In fact, East Asian respondents who are reminded of the Afghanistan withdrawal become more confident about American security commitments when alerted to the possibility that this decision will help Washington to concentrate additional military capabilities in their region.
ISSN:1352-3260
1743-8764
DOI:10.1080/13523260.2023.2253406