Exploring climate extremes in Brazil’s Legal Amazon

• Published in: Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2024-04, Vol.38 (4), p.1403-1422
• Main Authors: de Bodas Terassi, Paulo Miguel, Galvani, Emerson, Gobo, João Paulo Assis, da Silva Oscar-Júnior, Antonio Carlos, Luiz-Silva, Wanderson, Sobral, Bruno Serafini, de Gois, Givanildo, Biffi, Vitor Hugo Rosa
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agricultural expansion; Aquatic Pollution; Biodiversity; Carbon dioxide; Carbon dioxide emissions; Chemistry and Earth Sciences; Climate; Climate change; Climatic conditions; Computational Intelligence; Computer Science; Deforestation; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Ecosystems; Environment; Environmental research; Extreme values; Extreme weather; Forests; Homogeneity; Indicators; Industrial areas; Local communities; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science; Meteorology; Missing data; Original Paper; Physics; Precipitation; Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes; Rain; Rainfall; Risk assessment; Statistics for Engineering; Time series; Trends; Urbanization; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Weather stations
• ISSN: 1436-3240; 1436-3259
• DOI: 10.1007/s00477-023-02634-7

In this study, we evaluated extreme climate indicators for precipitation and temperature in the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA) from 1961 to 2021. Data from 38 National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) weather stations with a record failure rate less than 12% were used, and RClimDex software and the Mann–Kendall test, Pettitt test, standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT), and Buishand test were employed to analyse the data. The results showed increased extreme rainfall events, including the annual total rainfall divided by wet days (SDII). More frequent discontinuities were observed in the 1980s (SNHT) and 1990s (Pettitt and Buishand tests). The extreme temperature climate indicators also significantly increased, particularly in the 1990s. These increases are likely linked to changes in local climate conditions due to agricultural expansion, intensified industrial activities, and regional urbanization. This study underscores the need for proactive measures to curb illegal deforestation and reduce CO 2 emissions and further research to better understand and mitigate the adverse impacts of these changes on the BLA environment and local communities. Graphical abstract