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Reducing Fossil Fuel Dependence and Exploring Just Energy Transition Pathways in Indonesia Using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source Energy Modelling System)
Indonesia’s commitment to the Paris Agreement and its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is not adequately reflected in the significant CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel-intensive energy sectors, despite the enormous potential of renewable energy sources in the country. The ongoing coal regime ha...
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Published in: | Climate (Basel) 2024-03, Vol.12 (3), p.37 |
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creator | Hersaputri, Laksmita Dwi Yeganyan, Rudolf Cannone, Carla Plazas-Niño, Fernando Osei-Owusu, Simone Kountouris, Yiannis Howells, Mark |
description | Indonesia’s commitment to the Paris Agreement and its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is not adequately reflected in the significant CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel-intensive energy sectors, despite the enormous potential of renewable energy sources in the country. The ongoing coal regime has led to electricity oversupply and air pollution problems. Despite the huge challenges for Indonesia, a just energy transition away from fossil fuel is crucial. This study aims to explore the ideal energy mix and key emission reduction pathway in Indonesia in achieving a just energy transition using the least-cost optimisation energy modelling tool OSeMOSYS. Six scenarios are modelled over the period 2015–2050 including coal phase-out, NDC, the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), and carbon tax implementation. The results highlight that solar power, geothermal power, and hydropower are the alternatives for coal decommissioning. Despite the large-scale investment in renewable energy under the NDC and JETP scenarios, emissions could be reduced by 55% and 52%, respectively, by 2050. Moreover, Indonesia’s current carbon tax rate will not lead to a significant emission reduction. Three recommended policies include (1) accelerating CFPP retirement; (2) imposing an aggressive carbon tax rate; (3) prioritising investment in solar technologies. |
doi_str_mv | 10.3390/cli12030037 |
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The ongoing coal regime has led to electricity oversupply and air pollution problems. Despite the huge challenges for Indonesia, a just energy transition away from fossil fuel is crucial. This study aims to explore the ideal energy mix and key emission reduction pathway in Indonesia in achieving a just energy transition using the least-cost optimisation energy modelling tool OSeMOSYS. Six scenarios are modelled over the period 2015–2050 including coal phase-out, NDC, the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), and carbon tax implementation. The results highlight that solar power, geothermal power, and hydropower are the alternatives for coal decommissioning. Despite the large-scale investment in renewable energy under the NDC and JETP scenarios, emissions could be reduced by 55% and 52%, respectively, by 2050. Moreover, Indonesia’s current carbon tax rate will not lead to a significant emission reduction. 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subjects | Air pollution Alternative energy sources Capital expenditures Carbon Carbon dioxide Carbon dioxide emissions Coal Coal mining Coal-fired power plants Electricity distribution Electricity generation Emission analysis Emissions Emissions control Energy Energy industry Energy minerals Energy policy Energy resources Energy transition Environmental aspects Forecasts and trends Fossil fuels Geothermal energy Geothermal power Hydroelectric power Industrial plant emissions Job rotation Modelling Outdoor air quality Paris Agreement Regulatory reform Renewable energy Renewable energy sources Renewable resources Solar energy Solar power |
title | Reducing Fossil Fuel Dependence and Exploring Just Energy Transition Pathways in Indonesia Using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source Energy Modelling System) |
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