Advance layoff notices and aggregate job loss

Summary We collect data from Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act notices and establish their usefulness as an indicator of aggregate job loss. The number of workers affected by WARN notices (“WARN layoffs”) leads state‐level initial unemployment insurance claims and unemployment...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of applied econometrics (Chichester, England) England), 2024-04, Vol.39 (3), p.462-480
Main Authors: Krolikowski, Pawel M., Lunsford, Kurt G.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
dynamic factor model
Econometrics
Employee turnover
Employment
mass layoffs
Notices
Notification
Retraining
unemployment
Unemployment insurance
Usefulness
WARN Act
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Summary:Summary We collect data from Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act notices and establish their usefulness as an indicator of aggregate job loss. The number of workers affected by WARN notices (“WARN layoffs”) leads state‐level initial unemployment insurance claims and unemployment rate (UR) and private employment changes. WARN layoffs comove with aggregate layoffs from Mass Layoff Statistics and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey but are timelier and cover a longer sample. In a vector autoregression, changes in WARN layoffs lead UR changes and job separations. Finally, they improve pseudo real‐time forecasts of the UR and private employment changes.
ISSN:0883-7252
1099-1255
DOI:10.1002/jae.3032