Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations

In this work we address the problem of estimating the probabilities of causal contacts between civilizations in the Galaxy. We make no assumptions regarding the origin and evolution of intelligent life. We simply assume a network of causally connected nodes. These nodes refer somehow to intelligent...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of astrobiology 2020-10, Vol.19 (5), p.393-405
Main Authors: Lares, M., Funes, J. G., Gramajo, L.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Astronomical models
Civilization
Communication
Communication technology
Earth
Estimation
Galaxies
Intelligent agents
Lifetime
Mathematical models
Monte Carlo simulation
Nodes
Population density
Probability
Simulation
Statistical analysis
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Summary:In this work we address the problem of estimating the probabilities of causal contacts between civilizations in the Galaxy. We make no assumptions regarding the origin and evolution of intelligent life. We simply assume a network of causally connected nodes. These nodes refer somehow to intelligent agents with the capacity of receiving and emitting electromagnetic signals. Here we present a three-parametric statistical Monte Carlo model of the network in a simplified sketch of the Galaxy. Our goal, using Monte Carlo simulations, is to explore the parameter space and analyse the probabilities of causal contacts. We find that the odds to make a contact over decades of monitoring are low for most models, except for those of a galaxy densely populated with long-standing civilizations. We also find that the probability of causal contacts increases with the lifetime of civilizations more significantly than with the number of active civilizations. We show that the maximum probability of making a contact occurs when a civilization discovers the required communication technology.
ISSN:1473-5504
1475-3006
DOI:10.1017/S147355042000018X