Health care policy uncertainty and state-level employment

This study investigates the effects of health care policy uncertainty (HCPU) on aggregate- and state-level employment in the USA. Using quarterly data during 1985Q1–2021Q4, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model and find that HCPU has adverse effects on both aggregate- and state-level...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Empirical economics 2024-06, Vol.66 (6), p.2501-2532
Main Authors: Witvorapong, Nopphol, Cheng, Chak Hung Jack
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aggregate data
Avoidable
Econometrics
Economic theory
Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods
Economics
Economics and Finance
Employment
Finance
Health care expenditures
Health care policy
Health insurance
Health services
Heterogeneity
Insurance
Insurance coverage
Legislation
Management
Side effects
Statistics for Business
Uncertainty
Workers' rights
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Summary:This study investigates the effects of health care policy uncertainty (HCPU) on aggregate- and state-level employment in the USA. Using quarterly data during 1985Q1–2021Q4, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model and find that HCPU has adverse effects on both aggregate- and state-level employment. The effects at the state level are heterogeneous in terms of both the magnitude and the impact persistence, lasting up to 5 quarters. The heterogeneity can be explained by state-specific structural factors, most notably the right-to-work legislation. The study suggests that uncertainty in health care policies has an economic cost that may be partially preventable.
ISSN:0377-7332
1435-8921
DOI:10.1007/s00181-023-02532-5