Glacial debris flow susceptibility mapping based on combined models in the Parlung Tsangpo Basin, China

Machine learning (ML)-based prediction models for mapping hazard (e.g., landslide and debris flow) susceptibility have been widely developed in recent research. However, in some specific areas, ML models have limited application because of the uncertainties in identifying negative samples. The Parlu...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of mountain science 2024-04, Vol.21 (4), p.1231-1245
Main Authors: Zhou, Yonghao, Hu, Xiewen, Xi, Chuanjie, Wen, Hong, Cao, Xichao, Jin, Tao, Zhou, Ruichen, Zhang, Yu, Gong, Xueqiang
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Debris flow
Detritus
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Ecology
Environment
Factor analysis
Flow mapping
Geography
Glacial drift
Gullies
Landforms
Landslides
Machine learning
Mapping
Mathematical models
Original Article
Prediction models
Statistical analysis
Statistical models
Susceptibility
Valleys
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Summary:Machine learning (ML)-based prediction models for mapping hazard (e.g., landslide and debris flow) susceptibility have been widely developed in recent research. However, in some specific areas, ML models have limited application because of the uncertainties in identifying negative samples. The Parlung Tsangpo Basin exemplifies a region prone to recurrent glacial debris flows (GDFs) and is characterized by a prominent landform featuring deep gullies. Considering the limitations of the ML model, we developed and compared two combined statistical models (FA-WE and FA-IC) based on factor analysis (FA), weight of evidence (WE), and the information content (IC) method. The final GDF susceptibility maps were generated by selecting 8 most important static factors and considering the influence of precipitation. The results show that the FA-IC model has the best performance. The areas with a very high susceptibility to GDFs are primarily located in the narrow valley section upstream, on both sides of the valley in the middle and downstream of the Parlung Tsangpo River, and in the narrow valley section of each tributary. These areas encompass 86 gullies and are characterized as “narrow and steep”.
ISSN:1672-6316
1993-0321
1008-2786
DOI:10.1007/s11629-023-8500-0