Temperature impacts on dengue incidence are nonlinear and mediated by climatic and socioeconomic factors: A meta-analysis

• Published in: PLOS climate 2024-03, Vol.3 (3), p.e0000152
• Main Authors: Kirk, Devin, Straus, Samantha, Childs, Marissa L., Harris, Mallory, Couper, Lisa, Davies, T. Jonathan, Forbes, Coreen, Gehman, Alyssa-Lois, Groner, Maya L., Harley, Christopher, Lafferty, Kevin D., Savage, Van, Skinner, Eloise, O’Connor, Mary, Mordecai, Erin A.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Aquatic insects; Climate change; Climate effects; Dengue fever; Expected values; Infectious diseases; Mosquitoes; Population density; Rainfall; Remote sensing; Socioeconomic data; Socioeconomic factors; Socioeconomics; Variation; Vector-borne diseases
• ISSN: 2767-3200; 2767-3200
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000152

Temperature can influence mosquito-borne diseases like dengue. These effects are expected to vary geographically and over time in both magnitude and direction and may interact with other environmental variables, making it difficult to anticipate changes in response to climate change. Here, we investigate global variation in temperature–dengue relationship by analyzing published correlations between temperature and dengue and matching them with remotely sensed climatic and socioeconomic data. We found that the correlation between temperature and dengue was most positive at intermediate (near 24°C) temperatures, as predicted from an independent mechanistic model. Positive temperature–dengue associations were strongest when temperature variation and population density were high and decreased with infection burden and rainfall mean and variation, suggesting alternative limiting factors on transmission. Our results show that while climate effects on diseases are context-dependent they are also predictable from the thermal biology of transmission and its environmental and social mediators.