Aid, Attitudes, and Insurgency: Evidence from Development Projects in Northern Afghanistan

Prevalent counterinsurgency theories posit that small development aid projects can help stabilize regions in conflict. A widely assumed mechanism runs through citizen attitudes, often called “winning hearts and minds,” where aid brings economic benefits and sways public perceptions, leading to more...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:American journal of political science 2024-07, Vol.68 (3), p.1168-1182
Main Authors: Sexton, Renard, Zürcher, Christoph
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Attitudes
Cooperation
Counterinsurgency
Development aid
Development programs
Economic conditions
Foreign aid
Health education
Human development
Infrastructure
Insurgency
International cooperation
Legitimacy
Perceptions
Public opinion
Research design
Stabilization
Violence
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Summary:Prevalent counterinsurgency theories posit that small development aid projects can help stabilize regions in conflict. A widely assumed mechanism runs through citizen attitudes, often called “winning hearts and minds,” where aid brings economic benefits and sways public perceptions, leading to more cooperation and, eventually, less violence. Following a preregistered research design, we test this claim using difference‐in‐differences, leveraging original survey data, and new geocoded information about infrastructure projects in northern Afghanistan. We find that aid improves perceived economic conditions but erodes attitudes toward government and improves perceptions of insurgents. These attitudinal effects do not translate into changes in violence or territorial control. Testing mechanisms, we find projects with robust local consultation have fewer negative attitudinal effects, as do health and education projects. These findings challenge the “hearts and minds” theory but complement the wider literature on legitimacy, suggesting that foreign aid can improve human development but rarely meaningfully brings political stabilization.
ISSN:0092-5853
1540-5907
DOI:10.1111/ajps.12778