How Evidence Clearinghouses Can Avoid the Winner's Curse

Published studies of intervention effects probably report effect sizes that are larger than the true effect size. There are probably many reasons for this, but one can be thought of as a "winner's curse." In this essay, I discuss evidence from two recent studies that highlight how evi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of research on educational effectiveness 2024-07, Vol.17 (3), p.462-466
Main Author: Valentine, Jeffrey C.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Clearinghouses
Evidence clearinghouse
Intervention
Systematic review
winner's curse
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Summary:Published studies of intervention effects probably report effect sizes that are larger than the true effect size. There are probably many reasons for this, but one can be thought of as a "winner's curse." In this essay, I discuss evidence from two recent studies that highlight how evidence clearinghouses might inadvertently expose themselves to the winner's curse, describe reasonable and unreasonable expectations for evidence clearinghouses, then suggest strategies clearinghouses might adopt to reduce their exposure to the winner's curse.
ISSN:1934-5747
1934-5739
DOI:10.1080/19345747.2023.2194298