Seasonal influence of tropical Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature on streamflow variability in the patia river basin

• Published in: Theoretical and applied climatology 2024-06, Vol.155 (6), p.5417-5431
• Main Authors: Canchala, Teresita, Carvajal-Escobar, Yesid, Alfonso-Morales, Wilfredo, Torres, Wilmar Alexander, Sánchez-Torres, Luis Darío, Cerón, Wilmar L.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Anomalies; Aquatic Pollution; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate; Climate models; Climate variability; Climatic indexes; Climatology; Correlation analysis; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; El Nino; El Nino phenomena; El Nino-Southern Oscillation event; La Nina; Oceans; Principal components analysis; Risk management; River basins; Rivers; Sea surface temperature; Seasonal variability; Southern Oscillation; Stream discharge; Stream flow; Surface temperature; Variability; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Water resources; Water resources management
• ISSN: 0177-798X; 1434-4483
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-024-04934-6

This research presents a seasonal analysis of the variability of streamflows in the Patía River Basin (PRB) between 1984 and 2018 and the influence exerted by the large-scale climate variability using non-linear principal component analysis (NLPCA), Pearson's correlation, and composite analysis. The study was conduced during the minimum (July–August–September, JAS) and maximum (October–November–December, OND) streamflow periods. The NLPCA depicted a single significant mode of variability for each season with explained variances greater than 75%. The correlation analysis between the main mode of variability during OND and climate indices showed significant results, mainly with the Pacific Ocean and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In contrast, for JAS, the correlations were significant for the indices linked to the Atlantic Ocean. Finally, the composite analysis indicated that the positive (negative) events during JAS, which show the increase (decrease) of streamflow in PRB, are related to negative (positive) anomalies in the Tropical Northern Atlantic band, including the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. In comparison, the positive (negative) events during OND are related to negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific, corresponding to La Niña (El Niño) events. The results provide evidence of the strong influence of climate indices and tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST on seasonal streamflow in the PRB and establish the foundations for seasonal streamflow modelling, relevant for prevention and risk management as well as for adequate planning and management of water resources in the region.