Improved Estimates of Sub‐Regional Groundwater Storage Anomaly Using Coordinated Forward Modeling

• Published in: Water resources research 2024-07, Vol.60 (7), p.n/a
• Main Authors: Ma, Yalin, Pan, Yun, Zhang, Chong, Yeh, Pat J.‐F., Xu, Li, Huang, Zhiyong, Gong, Huili
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Aquifer storage; Aquifers; Case studies; Climate models; Errors; forward modeling; Geology; GRACE; GRACE (experiment); Groundwater; groundwater level; Groundwater levels; Groundwater storage; groundwater storage change; Hydrogeology; Leakage; Modelling; North China Plain; Regional development; Spatial variability; Spatial variations; Specific yield
• ISSN: 0043-1397; 1944-7973
• DOI: 10.1029/2023WR036105

Groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA) can be estimated either at the large scale from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) or at the local scale based on in situ observed groundwater level (GWL) and aquifer storage parameters. Yet, the accuracy of GRACE‐based estimate is affected by leakage errors, while that of local GWL‐based estimate requires the reliable specific yield (Sy) data that are usually not available. Here, we developed a novel approach, the coordinated forward modeling (CoFM), based on the iterative forward modeling to improve GWSA estimation at the sub‐regional scale smaller than the typical GRACE footprint. It is achieved by solving Sy through iterative comparisons between GRACE‐based and observation‐based GWSA at 0.5° grid scale, and then re‐calculating GWSA using the updated Sy and observed GWL. The utility of CoFM is explored by using the hypothetical experiments and a real case study in the Piedmont Plain (PP, ∼54,000 km2) and East‐central Plain (ECP, ∼86,000 km2) of North China Plain. Results show that CoFM can detect GWSA at 0.5° grid scale in the hypothetical experiments given the large spatial variability of GWL. While in the real case study, the CoFM distinguishes between the divergent unconfined GWSA trends (2005–2016) in PP (−41.80 ± 0.55 mm/yr) and ECP (−7.57 ± 0.60 mm/yr) caused by the differences in hydrogeological conditions and groundwater use. The improvement made by CoFM can be attributed to the use of the distributed GWL information to constrain GRACE leakage errors. This study highlights a practical important solution for improving sub‐regional GWSA estimation through the joint use of large‐scale GRACE data and local‐scale well observations. Key Points A coordinated forward modeling (CoFM) is developed to utilize in situ groundwater level to constrain Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment leakage errors CoFM enables the estimation of sub‐regional groundwater storage variations without requiring reliable specific yield data CoFM estimates groundwater depletion rate in the piedmont unconfined aquifers of North China Plain (NCP) is ∼6 times of that in the east‐central area of NCP