Zero Shot Health Trajectory Prediction Using Transformer

• Published in: arXiv.org 2024-07
• Main Authors: Renc, Pawel, Jia, Yugang, Samir, Anthony E, Was, Jaroslaw, Li, Quanzheng, Bates, David W, Sitek, Arkadiusz
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Cost analysis; Data analysis; Deep learning; Dimensional analysis; Health care; Machine learning; Trajectory analysis; Transformers; Zero-shot learning
• ISSN: 2331-8422

Integrating modern machine learning and clinical decision-making has great promise for mitigating healthcare's increasing cost and complexity. We introduce the Enhanced Transformer for Health Outcome Simulation (ETHOS), a novel application of the transformer deep-learning architecture for analyzing high-dimensional, heterogeneous, and episodic health data. ETHOS is trained using Patient Health Timelines (PHTs)-detailed, tokenized records of health events-to predict future health trajectories, leveraging a zero-shot learning approach. ETHOS represents a significant advancement in foundation model development for healthcare analytics, eliminating the need for labeled data and model fine-tuning. Its ability to simulate various treatment pathways and consider patient-specific factors positions ETHOS as a tool for care optimization and addressing biases in healthcare delivery. Future developments will expand ETHOS' capabilities to incorporate a wider range of data types and data sources. Our work demonstrates a pathway toward accelerated AI development and deployment in healthcare.