Spatial Analysis of Aquatic Ecological Health under Future Climate Change Using Extreme Gradient Boosting Tree (XGBoost) and SWAT

Climate change not only affects the water resource system but also has a great impact on the aquatic ecosystem, which is complexly linked to various organic and inorganic matter. It is difficult to simulate the current aquatic ecosystem and predict the future system due to the immensity and complexi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Water (Basel) 2024-08, Vol.16 (15), p.2085
Main Authors: Woo, Soyoung, Kim, Wonjin, Jung, Chunggil, Lee, Jiwan, Kim, Yongwon, Kim, Seongjoon
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accuracy
Algorithms
Aquatic ecosystems
Climate change
Climatic changes
Data collection
Drought
Environmental impact
Environmental monitoring
Fish
Hydrology
Machine learning
Plankton
Precipitation
River ecology
Stream flow
Water quality
Water resources
Watersheds
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Summary:Climate change not only affects the water resource system but also has a great impact on the aquatic ecosystem, which is complexly linked to various organic and inorganic matter. It is difficult to simulate the current aquatic ecosystem and predict the future system due to the immensity and complexity of aquatic ecosystems; however, a spatial analysis of future aquatic ecological health is necessary if we are to adapt and take action against future climate change. In this study, we evaluated the aquatic ecological health of the Han River basin under the future climate change RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using three indices: fish assessment index (FAI), trophic diatom index (TDI), and benthic macroinvertebrate index (BMI). For this, we developed the SWAT-XGBoost linkage algorithm, and the algorithm accuracy for the FAI, TDI, and BMI was 89.3~95.2%. In the case of the FAI and BMI assessment of aquatic ecological health, the upstream Han River was classified as a hot spot. In the case of the TDI, the downstream area of the Han River was classified as a cold spot. However, as the current TDI downstream was classified as grades D and E, continuous management is needed.
ISSN:2073-4441
2073-4441
DOI:10.3390/w16152085