Coexchangeable Process Modeling for Uncertainty Quantification in Joint Climate Reconstruction

• Published in: Journal of the American Statistical Association 2024-09, Vol.119 (547), p.1751-1764
• Main Authors: Astfalck, Lachlan, Williamson, Daniel, Gandy, Niall, Gregoire, Lauren, Ivanovic, Ruza
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Boundary conditions; Climate models; Measurement; Reconstruction; Sea surface temperature; Sheet modelling; Simulation; Spatiotemporal data; Uncertainty
• ISSN: 0162-1459; 1537-274X
• DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2024.2325705

Any experiment with climate models relies on a potentially large set of spatio-temporal boundary conditions. These can represent both the initial state of the system and/or forcings driving the model output throughout the experiment. These boundary conditions are typically fixed using available reconstructions in climate modeling studies; however, in reality they are highly uncertain, that uncertainty is unquantified, and the effect on the output of the experiment can be considerable. We develop efficient quantification of these uncertainties that combines relevant data from multiple models and observations. Starting from the coexchangeability model, we develop a coexchangeable process model to capture multiple correlated spatio-temporal fields of variables. We demonstrate that further exchangeability judgments over the parameters within this representation lead to a Bayes linear analogy of a hierarchical model. We use the framework to provide a joint reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and sea-ice concentration boundary conditions at the last glacial maximum (23–19 kya) and use it to force an ensemble of ice-sheet simulations using the FAMOUS-Ice coupled atmosphere and ice-sheet model. We demonstrate that existing boundary conditions typically used in these experiments are implausible given our uncertainties and demonstrate the impact of using more plausible boundary conditions on ice-sheet simulation. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.