Impacts of climate change and variability on drought characteristics and challenges on sorghum productivity in Babile District, Eastern Ethiopia

Examining the characteristics of drought indices in the context of climate variability and change, particularly in semi-arid water-stressed regions, requires adaptation. Observed climate data of the Babile station from 1980 to 2009 were used as a baseline for climate projection. Future climate proje...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of water and climate change 2024-09, Vol.15 (9), p.4278-4292
Main Authors: Tolossa, Abdisa Alemu, Dadi, Diriba Korecha, Mirkena, Lemma Wogi, Erena, Zelalem Bekeko, Liben, Feyera Merga
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
21st century
Cereal crops
Climate change
Climate variability
Climatic data
Climatic indexes
Crop production
Drought
Drought characteristics
Drought index
Environmental conditions
Environmental impact
Evapotranspiration
Future climates
Maximum likelihood method
Moisture content
Precipitation
Probability distribution
Productivity
Radiative forcing
Rain
Rainfall
Semiarid zones
Software
Soil conservation
Soil water
Sorghum
Time
Trends
Variability
Water conservation
Water shortages
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Summary:Examining the characteristics of drought indices in the context of climate variability and change, particularly in semi-arid water-stressed regions, requires adaptation. Observed climate data of the Babile station from 1980 to 2009 were used as a baseline for climate projection. Future climate projection was established under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) climate scenarios for the 21st century. Two drought indices, namely standard precipitation index and standard evapotranspiration index (SPI and SPEI) were employed based on temperature and rainfall to characterize droughts. Our study revealed that drought severity and intensity are more likely to increase under RCP4.5 climate forcing in the middle of the 21st century. The average drought severity (S) was 1.1, 1.53, 1.55, and 1.8 in SPEI 3-month time scale; 1.51, 2.1, 2.38, and 2.29 in SPEI 4-month time scale; and 2.15, 2.77, 3.44, and 2.91 in SPEI 6-month time scale, whereas, the drought severity (S) was 1.33, 1.37, and 1.79 in SPEI 3-month time scale; 1.79, 2.05, and 2.19 in SPEI 4-month time scale; and 2.47, 3.19, and 2.69 in SPEI 6-month time scale in observed, near, mid and end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Increase in drought frequency and severity occurrences under RCP4.5 scenario would have a negative impact on sorghum crop productivity. We recommended further study on practical soil water conservation to drought management in the study area.
ISSN:2040-2244
2408-9354
DOI:10.2166/wcc.2024.012