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Projected changes in mangrove distribution and vegetation structure under climate change in the southeastern United States
Aim The climate change‐induced transition from grass‐dominated marshes to woody‐plant‐dominated mangrove forests has the potential to impact the ecosystem goods and services provided by coastal wetlands. To better anticipate and prepare for these impacts, there is a need to advance understanding of...
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Published in: | Journal of biogeography 2024-11, Vol.51 (11), p.2285-2297 |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Subjects: | |
Citations: | Items that this one cites |
Online Access: | Get full text |
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Summary: | Aim
The climate change‐induced transition from grass‐dominated marshes to woody‐plant‐dominated mangrove forests has the potential to impact the ecosystem goods and services provided by coastal wetlands. To better anticipate and prepare for these impacts, there is a need to advance understanding of future changes in mangrove distribution and coastal wetland vegetation structural properties due to warming winters.
Location
Southeastern United States.
Time Period
Recent (1981–2010) and future (2071–2100).
Major Taxa Studied
Coastal wetland vegetation.
Methods
We estimated changes in mangrove distribution and coastal wetland vegetation structure using known climate‐ecological relationships, recent climate data for the period 1981–2010, and future projected climate data for the period 2071–2100. We quantified potential changes in mangrove presence, mangrove relative abundance, coastal wetland vegetation height, and coastal wetland vegetation aboveground biomass under two Shared Socio‐Economic Pathway scenarios (SSPs; SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5), which correspond to intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, respectively.
Results
Our analyses indicate that mangrove presence and relative abundance will dramatically increase in the northern Gulf of Mexico and the southeast Atlantic coast of the United States, particularly under the high emissions scenario. Because of the higher stature of mangroves relative to salt marsh vegetation, this expansion will cause a transformative change in coastal wetland vegetation height and aboveground biomass in many areas. However, along the arid southern Texas coast, low precipitation and high salinities are expected to constrain mangrove expansion and growth.
Main Conclusions
Our results show where and to what extent climate change, in the form of winter temperature warming, is projected to enable the transition from shorter, grass‐dominated salt marshes to taller, woody plant‐dominated mangrove forests in the southeastern United States, with consequent impacts on ecosystem goods and services. |
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ISSN: | 0305-0270 1365-2699 |
DOI: | 10.1111/jbi.14985 |