Assessing Hydrological Response and Resilience of Watersheds as Strategy for Climatic Change Adaptation in Neotropical Region

• Published in: Sustainability 2024-10, Vol.16 (20), p.8910
• Main Authors: Ogasawara, Matheus E. K, Mattos, Eduardo M, Rocha, Humberto R, Wei, Xiaohua, Ferraz, Silvio F. B
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agricultural production; Climate change; Environmental aspects; Hydrology; Integrated approach; Land use; Management; Natural history; Precipitation; Stream flow; Topography; Urban areas; Water; Water resources; Water shortages; Water supply; Watersheds
• ISSN: 2071-1050; 2071-1050
• DOI: 10.3390/su16208910

This study aimed to assess the hydrological response and resilience of watersheds in a neotropical region to identify regions sensitive to climate variations, enabling the development of adaptive strategies in response to global environmental changes. This study applied Budyko’s framework using Fuh’s hydrological model rewritten by Zhou to estimate hydrological response and Budyko’s metrics (deviation and elasticity) to estimate hydrological resilience to climatic changes in 26 watersheds in southeastern Brazil. The proposed modeling was able to capture the differences among the watersheds, with “m” values ranging from 1.79 to 3.63. It was possible to rank the hydrological resilience from low to high across watersheds using Budyko’s metrics, where the highest values of elasticity were found in watersheds with a higher percentage of forest cover. The sensitive analyses showed that watersheds with higher “m” values are more sensitive to changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The results also demonstrate that mean elevation and stream density were two key variables that influence the “m” value; these physiographic characteristics may alter the water and energy balance of the watershed affecting the water yield. A relationship between watershed’s hydrological response and resilience was proposed to identify critical areas for the stability of water yield in the watersheds, providing a guide for public policy and suggesting ways to help the management of water resources in watersheds.