Autocorrelations of the Wolf Number Cycle Fragments and Solar Half-Cycle Forecast

— Autocorrelations of fragments of the Wolf number series ( V 2) are considered for 6-year forecasting (solar half-cycle). For physical and optimal reasons, fragments similar to one and half cycles are used. Testing is successfully performed on sufficiently reliable pairs of fragments of the series...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geomagnetism and Aeronomy 2024-10, Vol.64 (5), p.639-646
Main Authors: Yakovleva, S. V., Starchenko, S. V.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Correlation coefficient
Correlation coefficients
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Fragments
Geophysics/Geodesy
Citations: Items that this one cites
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:— Autocorrelations of fragments of the Wolf number series ( V 2) are considered for 6-year forecasting (solar half-cycle). For physical and optimal reasons, fragments similar to one and half cycles are used. Testing is successfully performed on sufficiently reliable pairs of fragments of the series consisting of a fixed and a time-shifted fragment. A pair is selected for testing if the correlation coefficient is 0.91 or more when its components are combined. The original modification of the fixed fragment and the parts of the series following it are used. Similarly, 6-year forecasts after 2023 are produced from the fragment (2008.5–2023.5), which has correlation coefficients from 0.81 to 0.96 with fragments (1978.5–1993.5), (1901.5–1916.5), (1922.5–1937.5), (1964.5–1979.5), and (1985.5–2000.5). The maximum Wolf number (161 ± 30) is expected in mid-2024.
ISSN:0016-7932
1555-645X
0016-7940
DOI:10.1134/S0016793224600577