Uncovering Publication Bias in Fiscal Multiplier Estimates

Our study provides an integrated overview of fiscal multiplier estimates, a key parameter assessing the economy's response to government interventions. Using a comprehensive database comprising 131 studies and over 3200 observations, we employ both linear and nonlinear meta-analysis methods. No...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Finance a úvěr 2024-01, Vol.74 (4), p.392-431
Main Authors: Hlavacek, Michal, Ismayilov, Ilgar
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bias
Datasets
Economic crisis
Fiscal policy
Government spending
Interest rates
Meta-analysis
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Our study provides an integrated overview of fiscal multiplier estimates, a key parameter assessing the economy's response to government interventions. Using a comprehensive database comprising 131 studies and over 3200 observations, we employ both linear and nonlinear meta-analysis methods. Notably, our study marks the first application of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) in the context of meta-analysis for fiscal multipliers. Our results reveal a positive but moderate fiscal multiplier effect, ranging from 0.75 to 0.83 across different models. Significantly, our findings diverge from prior research by identifying a publication selection bias, largely attributed to our innovative use of BMA for heterogeneity investigation.
ISSN:0015-1920
2464-7683
DOI:10.32065/CJEF.2024.04.02