Kinetic exchange opinion dynamics for the battleground-states in the 2024 US presidential elections

The strongly polarizing political discourse in the U. S. implies that a small minority of the population, determining the outcome of the presidential elections in a few so called battleground-states, also determines the outcome of the overall election. Given the almost equal distributions of the ele...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:arXiv.org 2024-11
Main Authors: Biswas, Soumyajyoti, Sen, Parongama, Thota, Bhargav, Kodali, Hemanth, I Vinay Datta, K Madhu Venkata Akash
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Election results
Elections
Presidential elections
Public opinion surveys
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:The strongly polarizing political discourse in the U. S. implies that a small minority of the population, determining the outcome of the presidential elections in a few so called battleground-states, also determines the outcome of the overall election. Given the almost equal distributions of the electoral college members in the so-called blue and red states, the members elected from these battleground states would determine the election results. We build a kinetic exchange opinion model that takes into account the dynamical nature of the opinions of the individuals in the battleground states and the already determined core voters of the non-battleground states. In a fully connected graph, we consider the interaction among the population in the battleground states while the agents in the non-battleground states are assumed to have fixed opinions. We provide the analytical results and numerical simulations using realistic parameters from the opinion poll of the previous election's data. Counter-intuitively, a more noisy environment predicts a higher chance of the Democrats' win.
ISSN:2331-8422