The construction of event loss tables of residential properties in each District in Papua region, Indonesia, based on the probability distribution of the tectonic earthquake moment magnitudes

• Main Authors: Tampubolon, Dumaria R., Pratama, Randhy, Boro, Yosef R. L., Wirasugema, Vincensius F. C., Rahmady, Muhammad F., Putra, Indrayoga
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Subjects: Casualties; Earthquake construction; Earthquake damage; Earthquakes; Insurance; Monte Carlo simulation; Plates (tectonics); Probability distribution; Reinsurance
• ISSN: 0094-243X; 1551-7616
• DOI: 10.1063/5.0239979

Indonesia is the largest archipelago, consisting of approximately 17,000 islands, and is at the meeting point of four big tectonic plates. Two of the causes of the occurrence of earthquakes are collisions between the earth’s plates and active faults. Apart from the tragedy of human casualties, earthquakes in Indonesia may cause large financial losses due to building and infrastructure damage. Insurance (and reinsurance) on damages to properties may be used as protection against the risk of financial losses due to tectonic earthquakes. The Event Loss Table (ELT) in the Loss Module of an Earthquake Catastrophe (CAT) Model is used to determine the distribution of the financial losses caused by tectonic earthquakes. This could be used to determine, for example, the insurance and reinsurance schemes. In this study, the ELT of the financial losses of residential properties in each Kota/Kabupaten or District in the Papua region, Indonesia, is constructed based on the probability distribution of the moment magnitudes of the tectonic earthquake mainshocks of “historical earthquakes” as opposed to those produced by the 2019 Global Earthquake Model (GEM) in which ELTs are constructed based on the “synthetic earthquake catalogue”. Furthermore, in this study, the ELTs are constructed using collective risk models and Monte-Carlo simulations. There are many zero aggregate losses in the resulting ELTs caused by the historical tectonic earthquakes. These results are reasonable due to the probability of the occurrence of one or more earthquakes with certain characteristics at a geographical site, for a given Average Recurrence Interval (ARI), is very small, that is 0.004 for an ARI of 250 years and 0.002 for an ARI of 500 years.