Multivariate Evaluation of Flash Drought Across the United States

• Published in: Water resources research 2024-11, Vol.60 (11), p.n/a
• Main Authors: Otkin, Jason A., Zhong, Yafang, Ford, Trent W., Anderson, Martha C., Hain, Christopher, Hoell, Andrew, Svoboda, Mark, Wang, Hailan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: climate; Climate science; Climatology; Datasets; Demand analysis; Drought; Drought conditions; Drought index; Drought monitoring; Environmental monitoring; Evapotranspiration; flash drought; Indicators; Moisture content; Multivariate analysis; Precipitation; Seasonal variation; Soil moisture; Synthesis; United States
• ISSN: 0043-1397; 1944-7973
• DOI: 10.1029/2024WR037333

This study uses the flash drought intensity index (FDII) to develop a multivariate flash drought climatology for the contiguous U.S. using data from 2001 to 2021. The FDII method uses the rate of intensification (FD‐INT) and subsequent drought severity (DRO‐SEV) to determine when a flash drought occurred and the strength of the event. Overall, the results showed that flash drought occurrence and severity varied with season and region and were sensitive to the drought indicator used to compute the FDII. Precipitation‐based indicators identified more flash droughts across the western U.S. whereas soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration indicators identified more flash droughts across the central and eastern U.S. When assessed over the entire U.S., the most flash droughts were found when using an evaporative demand indicator. Though FD‐INT was larger than DRO‐SEV across the U.S. for most indicators, regional patterns were also evident in their relative importance. For example, a distinct east‐west gradient was present in the SM and evapotranspiration FD‐INT, with relatively large values in the central and eastern U.S. A combined data set synthesizing information from multiple indicators showed that the strongest flash droughts from a multivariate perspective were located in the central and southeastern U.S. A seasonal analysis revealed a distinct seasonal cycle in flash drought onset across the western and central U.S. Together, the results illustrate the need to use a multivariate framework to identify and characterize the occurrence and severity of flash droughts. Plain Language Summary Flash droughts are characterized by rapid intensification leading to sustained drought conditions that impact natural and human ecosystems. This study used several drought monitoring data sets to develop a multivariate flash drought climatology for the contiguous U.S. that captures both when flash droughts occur and their severity. Overall, the results revealed that flash drought occurrence and severity varied with season and region and were sensitive to the indicator used to characterize these events. Precipitation‐based indicators identified more flash droughts across the western U.S. while SM and evapotranspiration indicators identified more flash droughts across the central and eastern U.S. When assessed over the entire U.S., the most flash droughts were identified when using an indicator of evaporative demand. A combined indicator that synthesizes information from mul