Near-term ecological forecasting for climate change action

A substantial increase in predictive capacity is needed to anticipate and mitigate the widespread change in ecosystems and their services in the face of climate and biodiversity crises. In this era of accelerating change, we cannot rely on historical patterns or focus primarily on long-term projecti...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature climate change 2024-11, Vol.14 (12), p.1236-1244
Main Authors: Dietze, Michael, White, Ethan P., Abeyta, Antoinette, Boettiger, Carl, Bueno Watts, Nievita, Carey, Cayelan C., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Emanuel, Ryan E., Ernest, S. K. Morgan, Figueiredo, Renato J., Gerst, Michael D., Johnson, Leah R., Kenney, Melissa A., McLachlan, Jason S., Paschalidis, Ioannis Ch, Peters, Jody A., Rollinson, Christine R., Simonis, Juniper, Sullivan-Wiley, Kira, Thomas, R. Quinn, Wardle, Glenda M., Willson, Alyssa M., Zwart, Jacob
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
631/158/2165
704/106/694/2739
704/106/694/2786
Biodiversity
Climate action
Climate Change
Climate change forecasting
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climate prediction
Decision making
Earth and Environmental Science
Environment
Environmental changes
Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice
Forecasting
Perspective
Scaling up
Weather forecasting
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Summary:A substantial increase in predictive capacity is needed to anticipate and mitigate the widespread change in ecosystems and their services in the face of climate and biodiversity crises. In this era of accelerating change, we cannot rely on historical patterns or focus primarily on long-term projections that extend decades into the future. In this Perspective, we discuss the potential of near-term (daily to decadal) iterative ecological forecasting to improve decision-making on actionable time frames. We summarize the current status of ecological forecasting and focus on how to scale up, build on lessons from weather forecasting, and take advantage of recent technological advances. We also highlight the need to focus on equity, workforce development, and broad cross-disciplinary and non-academic partnerships. In this Perspective, the authors discuss the current status of ecological forecasting research, its role in helping to address the climate and biodiversity crises facing society and potential future directions, with a central focus on how to scale up ecological forecasting capabilities.
ISSN:1758-678X
1758-6798
DOI:10.1038/s41558-024-02182-0