Household debt and economic growth in Europe

• Published in: Macroeconomic dynamics 2025-01, Vol.29, p.1-19
• Main Authors: Barbaglia, L., Manzan, S., Tosetti, E.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Borrowing; Consumption; Economic activity; Economic conditions; Economic crisis; Economic growth; Employment; European Monetary Union; Eurozone; GDP; Great Recession; Gross Domestic Product; High income; Households; Housing; Housing prices; Income distribution; Interest rates; Low income groups; Manufacturing; Mortgages; Regions; Securities markets
• ISSN: 1365-1005; 1469-8056
• DOI: 10.1017/S1365100524000117

We investigate the role and impact of household debt on the economic performance of European economies during the double-dip recession of 2008–2013. We use a loan-level data set of millions of residential mortgages originated between 2000 and 2013 to calculate regional indicators of household debt. The granular information allows us to construct a measure of interest rate mispricing during the housing boom that we use to identify the effect of a credit shock (CS) on household debt. Our analysis provides three main conclusions. First, in the period 2004–2006, the measure of CS was negative in most European regions which indicates that credit conditions were significantly relaxed relative to earlier years. Second, we find that regions in which household leverage increased more rapidly during the 2002–2007 period experienced a more severe decline in output and employment after 2008. Third, we find that the CS had the largest effect on increasing leverage for the low-income and the middle-income households, although the leverage of the high-income households represents a more powerful predictor of the decline in economic activity.