Are recessions inevitable?

Using historical data for the US, it is shown that, in the long run, growth is remarkably predictable. Recessions have many different causes. It is argued that the present recession is the result of the conjunction of several economic actions and features, particularly faulty policy response to incr...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of the Asia Pacific economy 2010-11, Vol.15 (4), p.341-348
Main Author: Mirrlees, James A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Business cycles
Commodity prices
Cyclical analysis
derivative
Economic growth
Economic history
Economic policy
Financial institutions
fiscal
Fiscal policy
Government policy
Historical analysis
Inflation
Macroeconomics
policy
Prevention
Recession
Recessions
Studies
United States
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Summary:Using historical data for the US, it is shown that, in the long run, growth is remarkably predictable. Recessions have many different causes. It is argued that the present recession is the result of the conjunction of several economic actions and features, particularly faulty policy response to increased commodity prices and bad incentives for lenders in financial institutions created by the marketed derivatives. Arguments for using fiscal stimulus to counteract recession are rehearsed. Reasons why these policies were not fully effective are offered, and the prospects for future prevention are assessed.
ISSN:1354-7860
1469-9648
DOI:10.1080/13547860.2010.516148