Simulation of Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclones with WRF Model: Impact of Initial and Boundary Conditions

An attempt is made to delineate the relative performances and credentials of GFS, FNL, and NCMRWF global analyses/forecast products as initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) to the WRF-ARW model in the simulation of four Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones (TCs). The results suggest that FNL could simul...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Marine geodesy 2010-10, Vol.33 (4), p.294-314
Main Authors: Mohanty, U. C., Osuri, Krishna K., Routray, A., Mohapatra, M., Pattanayak, Sujata
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bay of Bengal
Boundary conditions
Computer simulation
Creeks & streams
Cyclones
Errors
Geodetics
initial and boundary conditions
Marine
Mathematical models
Maxima
Simulation
Tropical cyclone
Vorticity
WRF model
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Summary:An attempt is made to delineate the relative performances and credentials of GFS, FNL, and NCMRWF global analyses/forecast products as initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) to the WRF-ARW model in the simulation of four Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones (TCs). The results suggest that FNL could simulate horizontal advection of vorticity maxima at 850 hPa; hence, the tracks are more realistic with least errors as compared to GFS and NCMRWF. The mean landfall errors for 24-, 48-, and 72-hour forecasts are 73, 41, and 72 km, respectively. The TC intensity is well captured by NCMRWF IBCs, as it could predict 850 hPa vorticity maxima. The 24-hour accumulated rainfall is well simulated with FNL, and equitable threat score is more than 0.2 up to 100 mm with minimum bias.
ISSN:0149-0419
1521-060X
DOI:10.1080/01490419.2010.518061