Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions

In this paper, we provide both retrospective and prospective assessment of progress in real-tiem assessment of macroeconomic activity. Our concern is with nowcasting, not forecasting (that is, coincident, not leading indexes). To maximize transparency, in this paper we use a monthly base frequency f...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The American economic review 2010-05, Vol.100 (2), p.20-24
Main Authors: Aruoba, S. Borağan, Diebold, Francis X.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Central banks
Demand shocks
Economic activity
Economic agents
Economic fluctuations
Economic indicators
Economic recessions
Federal Reserve Bank
Forecasting models
High frequencies
Industrial production
Inflation
Macroeconomics
Real time
Recessions
REVISITING AND RETHINKING THE BUSINESS CYCLE
Studies
Supply shocks
Wages & salaries
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Summary:In this paper, we provide both retrospective and prospective assessment of progress in real-tiem assessment of macroeconomic activity. Our concern is with nowcasting, not forecasting (that is, coincident, not leading indexes). To maximize transparency, in this paper we use a monthly base frequency for all analysis. We focus not only on real macroeconomic activity, which has received most attention to date, but also on inflation and its interaction with real activity. In Section 1 we assess real activity, in Section II inflation activity, and in Section III their interaction. We conclude in Section IV.
ISSN:0002-8282
1944-7981
DOI:10.1257/aer.100.2.20