DISTINGUISHING THE ROLES OF NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENICALLY FORCED DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY: Implications for Prediction

Given that over the course of the next 10–30 years the magnitude of natural decadal variations may rival that of anthropogenically forced climate change on regional scales, it is envisioned that initialized decadal predictions will provide important information for climate-related management and ada...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2011-02, Vol.92 (2), p.141-156
Main Authors: Solomon, Amy, Goddard, Lisa, Kumar, Arun, Carton, James, Deser, Clara, Fukumori, Ichiro, Greene, Arthur M., Hegerl, Gabriele, Kirtman, Ben, Kushnir, Yochanan, Newman, Matthew, Smith, Doug, Vimont, Dan, Delworth, Tom, Meehl, Gerald A., Stockdale, Timothy
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Anthropogenic factors
Atmospherics
Bgi / Prodig
Climate
Climate change
Climate models
Climate system
Climate variability
Climatology
Drought
Experiments
Global climate models
Meteorology
Modeling
Noise
Oceanic climates
Oceans
Paleoclimatology
Physical geography
Predictability
Sea surface temperature
Spectrum allocation
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Summary:Given that over the course of the next 10–30 years the magnitude of natural decadal variations may rival that of anthropogenically forced climate change on regional scales, it is envisioned that initialized decadal predictions will provide important information for climate-related management and adaptation decisions. Such predictions are presently one of the grand challenges for the climate community. This requires identifying those physical phenomena—and their model equivalents—that may provide additional predictability on decadal time scales, including an assessment of the physical processes through which anthropogenic forcing may interact with or project upon natural variability. Such a physical framework is necessary to provide a consistent assessment (and insight into potential improvement) of the decadal prediction experiments planned to be assessed as part of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report.
ISSN:0003-0007
1520-0477
1520-0477
DOI:10.1175/2010BAMS2962.1