Estimating the Global Public Health Implications of Electricity and Coal Consumption

• Published in: Environmental health perspectives 2011-06, Vol.119 (6), p.821-826
• Main Authors: Gohlke, Julia M., Thomas, Reuben, Woodward, Alistair, Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid, Prüss-Üstün, Annette, Hales, Simon, Portier, Christopher J.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air; Air Pollution; Biological and medical sciences; Climate change; Coal; Coal - adverse effects; Coal - statistics & numerical data; Economic aspects; Electric Power Supplies - adverse effects; Electric Power Supplies - statistics & numerical data; Electricity; Energy consumption; Environment. Living conditions; Environmental impact analysis; Environmental pollutants toxicology; Greenhouse Effect; Health aspects; Humans; Infant; Infant Mortality; International aspects; Life Expectancy; Medical sciences; Methods; Modeling; Models, Biological; Mortality; Public Health - trends; Public health administration; Public health. Hygiene; Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine; Renewable energy; Risk Assessment; Time series models; Toxicology; Water pollution
• ISSN: 0091-6765; 1552-9924
• DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1002241

Background: The growing health risks associated with greenhouse gas emissions highlight the need for new energy policies that emphasize efficiency and low-carbon energy intensity. Objectives: We assessed the relationships among electricity use, coal consumption, and health outcomes. Methods: Using time-series data sets from 41 countries with varying development trajectories between 1965 and 2005, we developed an autoregressive model of life expectancy (LE) and infant mortality (IM) based on electricity consumption, coal consumption, and previous year's LE or IM. Prediction of health impacts from the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated air pollution emissions health impact model for coal-fired power plants was compared with the time-series model results. Results: The time-series model predicted that increased electricity consumption was associated with reduced IM for countries that started with relatively high IM (> 100/1,000 live births) and low LE (< 57 years) in 1965, whereas LE was not significantly associated with electricity consumption regardless of IM and LE in 1965. Increasing coal consumption was associated with increased IM and reduced LE after accounting for electricity consumption. These results are consistent with results based on the GAINS model and previously published estimates of disease burdens attributable to energy-related environmental factors, including indoor and outdoor air pollution and water and sanitation. Conclusions: Increased electricity consumption in countries with IM < 100/1,000 live births does not lead to greater health benefits, whereas coal consumption has significant detrimental health impacts.