Loading…
Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting
Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the pro...
Saved in:
Published in: | Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 2011-02, Vol.231 (1), p.153-171 |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Subjects: | |
Citations: | Items that this one cites |
Online Access: | Get full text |
Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
cited_by | |
---|---|
cites | cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c528t-10782f731322888b46fd97b91d427a83fe7fa6c90c7b9b59f29ba2e234ea35993 |
container_end_page | 171 |
container_issue | 1 |
container_start_page | 153 |
container_title | Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik |
container_volume | 231 |
creator | Hofer, Helmut Schmidt, Torsten Weyerstrass, Klaus |
description | Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the projected development of public finances. However, the current practice of performing medium-term economic projections is unsatisfactory from a methodological point of view as the applied methodology has been developed for short-run forecasting and it is questionable whether these methods are useful for the medium term. In particular, currently medium-term projections are mostly based on the neoclassical Solow growth model with an aggregate production function with labour, capital and exogenous technological progress. It might be argued, however, that for medium-run projections endogenous growth models might be better suited. In this paper we give an overview of currently used methods for medium-term macroeconomic projections. Then we analyse the performance of mediumterm forecasts for Austria to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of the typical approach. In particular, the five-year projections of real GDP growth, inflation and the unemployment rate are investigated. Finally, we describe some approaches to improve medium-run projections. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1515/jbnst-2011-0110 |
format | article |
fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>jstor_proqu</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_journals_880243338</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><jstor_id>23813250</jstor_id><sourcerecordid>23813250</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c528t-10782f731322888b46fd97b91d427a83fe7fa6c90c7b9b59f29ba2e234ea35993</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp1kEtPwzAMxyMEEmNw5oRUcQ_Lo4-UAxKaNkAMsQNI3KI0TUer9UGSgvbtcSkaJw6O7cj-2_4hdE7JFY1oNKuyxnnMCKUYjBygCeNxjEmYvh2iCSGM4pCw5BidOFdByinnE3S9tkr7UptANXmwtq3rjPYuaIvgyeRlX2NvbB0sdNu0damDZWuNVs6XzeYUHRVq68zZr5-i1-XiZX6PV893D_PbFdYREx5TkghWJDCOMSFEFsZFniZZSvOQJUrwwiSFinVKNHxmUVqwNFPMMB4axaM05VN0Oep2tv3ojfOyanvbwEgpBGEh51xA0Wws0nCCs6aQnS1rZXeSEjnwkT985MBHDnyg43HssAZO3pdXjasy55WXn5IroATvboiGRq5KsMF3g4-4pAmV774GtZtR7UttgVhuNrbfQfC36z97wAQKQiBwMQpUzrd2vw7jAsBFhH8DoJWPcg</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>880243338</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting</title><source>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</source><source>Alma/SFX Local Collection</source><creator>Hofer, Helmut ; Schmidt, Torsten ; Weyerstrass, Klaus</creator><creatorcontrib>Hofer, Helmut ; Schmidt, Torsten ; Weyerstrass, Klaus</creatorcontrib><description>Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the projected development of public finances. However, the current practice of performing medium-term economic projections is unsatisfactory from a methodological point of view as the applied methodology has been developed for short-run forecasting and it is questionable whether these methods are useful for the medium term. In particular, currently medium-term projections are mostly based on the neoclassical Solow growth model with an aggregate production function with labour, capital and exogenous technological progress. It might be argued, however, that for medium-run projections endogenous growth models might be better suited. In this paper we give an overview of currently used methods for medium-term macroeconomic projections. Then we analyse the performance of mediumterm forecasts for Austria to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of the typical approach. In particular, the five-year projections of real GDP growth, inflation and the unemployment rate are investigated. Finally, we describe some approaches to improve medium-run projections.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0021-4027</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2366-049X</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2011-0110</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Stuttgart: LUCIUS & LUCIUS</publisher><subject>aggregate production function ; Austria ; Econometric models ; Economic fluctuations ; Economic forecasting ; Economic forecasting models ; Economic forecasts ; Economic growth models ; Economic models ; Economic theory ; Forecasting models ; Forecasting techniques ; Gross domestic product ; Growth models ; macroeconomic forecasts ; Macroeconomic modeling ; Macroeconomics ; Time series forecasting ; Time series models</subject><ispartof>Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 2011-02, Vol.231 (1), p.153-171</ispartof><rights>2011 Lucius & Lucius Verlagsgesellschaft mbH</rights><rights>Copyright Lucius & Lucius Verlagsgesellschaft mbH Feb 2011</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c528t-10782f731322888b46fd97b91d427a83fe7fa6c90c7b9b59f29ba2e234ea35993</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27924,27925,33223</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://econpapers.repec.org/article/jnsjbstat/v_3a231_3ay_3a2011_3ai_3a1_3ap_3a153-171.htm$$DView record in RePEc$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Hofer, Helmut</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Schmidt, Torsten</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Weyerstrass, Klaus</creatorcontrib><title>Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting</title><title>Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik</title><description>Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the projected development of public finances. However, the current practice of performing medium-term economic projections is unsatisfactory from a methodological point of view as the applied methodology has been developed for short-run forecasting and it is questionable whether these methods are useful for the medium term. In particular, currently medium-term projections are mostly based on the neoclassical Solow growth model with an aggregate production function with labour, capital and exogenous technological progress. It might be argued, however, that for medium-run projections endogenous growth models might be better suited. In this paper we give an overview of currently used methods for medium-term macroeconomic projections. Then we analyse the performance of mediumterm forecasts for Austria to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of the typical approach. In particular, the five-year projections of real GDP growth, inflation and the unemployment rate are investigated. Finally, we describe some approaches to improve medium-run projections.</description><subject>aggregate production function</subject><subject>Austria</subject><subject>Econometric models</subject><subject>Economic fluctuations</subject><subject>Economic forecasting</subject><subject>Economic forecasting models</subject><subject>Economic forecasts</subject><subject>Economic growth models</subject><subject>Economic models</subject><subject>Economic theory</subject><subject>Forecasting models</subject><subject>Forecasting techniques</subject><subject>Gross domestic product</subject><subject>Growth models</subject><subject>macroeconomic forecasts</subject><subject>Macroeconomic modeling</subject><subject>Macroeconomics</subject><subject>Time series forecasting</subject><subject>Time series models</subject><issn>0021-4027</issn><issn>2366-049X</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2011</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>8BJ</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kEtPwzAMxyMEEmNw5oRUcQ_Lo4-UAxKaNkAMsQNI3KI0TUer9UGSgvbtcSkaJw6O7cj-2_4hdE7JFY1oNKuyxnnMCKUYjBygCeNxjEmYvh2iCSGM4pCw5BidOFdByinnE3S9tkr7UptANXmwtq3rjPYuaIvgyeRlX2NvbB0sdNu0damDZWuNVs6XzeYUHRVq68zZr5-i1-XiZX6PV893D_PbFdYREx5TkghWJDCOMSFEFsZFniZZSvOQJUrwwiSFinVKNHxmUVqwNFPMMB4axaM05VN0Oep2tv3ojfOyanvbwEgpBGEh51xA0Wws0nCCs6aQnS1rZXeSEjnwkT985MBHDnyg43HssAZO3pdXjasy55WXn5IroATvboiGRq5KsMF3g4-4pAmV774GtZtR7UttgVhuNrbfQfC36z97wAQKQiBwMQpUzrd2vw7jAsBFhH8DoJWPcg</recordid><startdate>20110201</startdate><enddate>20110201</enddate><creator>Hofer, Helmut</creator><creator>Schmidt, Torsten</creator><creator>Weyerstrass, Klaus</creator><general>LUCIUS & LUCIUS</general><general>Lucius & Lucius</general><general>Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics</general><general>Walter de Gruyter GmbH</general><scope>DKI</scope><scope>X2L</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>JBE</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20110201</creationdate><title>Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting</title><author>Hofer, Helmut ; Schmidt, Torsten ; Weyerstrass, Klaus</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c528t-10782f731322888b46fd97b91d427a83fe7fa6c90c7b9b59f29ba2e234ea35993</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2011</creationdate><topic>aggregate production function</topic><topic>Austria</topic><topic>Econometric models</topic><topic>Economic fluctuations</topic><topic>Economic forecasting</topic><topic>Economic forecasting models</topic><topic>Economic forecasts</topic><topic>Economic growth models</topic><topic>Economic models</topic><topic>Economic theory</topic><topic>Forecasting models</topic><topic>Forecasting techniques</topic><topic>Gross domestic product</topic><topic>Growth models</topic><topic>macroeconomic forecasts</topic><topic>Macroeconomic modeling</topic><topic>Macroeconomics</topic><topic>Time series forecasting</topic><topic>Time series models</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Hofer, Helmut</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Schmidt, Torsten</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Weyerstrass, Klaus</creatorcontrib><collection>RePEc IDEAS</collection><collection>RePEc</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><jtitle>Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Hofer, Helmut</au><au>Schmidt, Torsten</au><au>Weyerstrass, Klaus</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting</atitle><jtitle>Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik</jtitle><date>2011-02-01</date><risdate>2011</risdate><volume>231</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>153</spage><epage>171</epage><pages>153-171</pages><issn>0021-4027</issn><eissn>2366-049X</eissn><abstract>Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the projected development of public finances. However, the current practice of performing medium-term economic projections is unsatisfactory from a methodological point of view as the applied methodology has been developed for short-run forecasting and it is questionable whether these methods are useful for the medium term. In particular, currently medium-term projections are mostly based on the neoclassical Solow growth model with an aggregate production function with labour, capital and exogenous technological progress. It might be argued, however, that for medium-run projections endogenous growth models might be better suited. In this paper we give an overview of currently used methods for medium-term macroeconomic projections. Then we analyse the performance of mediumterm forecasts for Austria to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of the typical approach. In particular, the five-year projections of real GDP growth, inflation and the unemployment rate are investigated. Finally, we describe some approaches to improve medium-run projections.</abstract><cop>Stuttgart</cop><pub>LUCIUS & LUCIUS</pub><doi>10.1515/jbnst-2011-0110</doi><tpages>19</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
fulltext | fulltext |
identifier | ISSN: 0021-4027 |
ispartof | Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 2011-02, Vol.231 (1), p.153-171 |
issn | 0021-4027 2366-049X |
language | eng |
recordid | cdi_proquest_journals_880243338 |
source | International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS); Alma/SFX Local Collection |
subjects | aggregate production function Austria Econometric models Economic fluctuations Economic forecasting Economic forecasting models Economic forecasts Economic growth models Economic models Economic theory Forecasting models Forecasting techniques Gross domestic product Growth models macroeconomic forecasts Macroeconomic modeling Macroeconomics Time series forecasting Time series models |
title | Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting |
url | http://sfxeu10.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/loughborough?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-05T01%3A51%3A17IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-jstor_proqu&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Practice%20and%20Prospects%20of%20Medium-term%20Economic%20Forecasting&rft.jtitle=Jahrb%C3%BCcher%20f%C3%BCr%20National%C3%B6konomie%20und%20Statistik&rft.au=Hofer,%20Helmut&rft.date=2011-02-01&rft.volume=231&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=153&rft.epage=171&rft.pages=153-171&rft.issn=0021-4027&rft.eissn=2366-049X&rft_id=info:doi/10.1515/jbnst-2011-0110&rft_dat=%3Cjstor_proqu%3E23813250%3C/jstor_proqu%3E%3Cgrp_id%3Ecdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c528t-10782f731322888b46fd97b91d427a83fe7fa6c90c7b9b59f29ba2e234ea35993%3C/grp_id%3E%3Coa%3E%3C/oa%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=880243338&rft_id=info:pmid/&rft_jstor_id=23813250&rfr_iscdi=true |