Landslide susceptibility assessment in the İzmir (West Anatolia, Turkey) city center and its near vicinity by the logistic regression method

• Published in: Environmental earth sciences 2009-12, Vol.59 (4), p.745-756
• Main Authors: Kıncal, Cem, Akgun, Aykut, Koca, M. Yalcın
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Areal geology; Areal geology. Maps; Biogeosciences; Cities; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; Environmental Science and Engineering; Exact sciences and technology; Fault lines; Geochemistry; Geologic maps, cartography; Geology; Hydrology/Water Resources; Landslides; Landslides & mudslides; Lithology; Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc; Original Article; Pollution, environment geology; Regression analysis; Risk assessment; Terrestrial Pollution
• ISSN: 1866-6280; 1866-6299
• DOI: 10.1007/s12665-009-0070-0

A landslide susceptibility assessment for İzmir city (Western Turkey), which is the third biggest city of Turkey, was performed by a logistic regression method. A database of landslide characteristics was prepared using detailed field surveys. The major landslides in the study area are generally observed in the field, dominated by weathered volcanics, and 39.63% of the total landslide area is in this unit. The parameters of lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, distance to drainage, distance to roads and distance to fault lines were used as variables in the logistic regression analysis. The effect of each parameter on landslide occurrence was assessed from the corresponding coefficients that appear in the logistic regression function. On the basis of the obtained coefficients, lithology plays the most important role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution. Slope gradient has a more significant effect than the other geomorphological parameters, such as slope aspect and distance to drainage. Using a predicted map of probability, the study area was classified into five categories of landslide susceptibility: very low, low, moderate, high and very high. Whereas 49.65% of the total study area has very low susceptibility, very high susceptibility zones make up 11.69% of the area.