The Pharmacist Aggregate Demand Index to Explain Changing Pharmacist Demand Over a Ten-Year Period

To describe Aggregate Demand Index (ADI) trends from 1999-2010; to compare ADI time trends to concurrent data for US unemployment levels, US entry-level pharmacy graduates, and US retail prescription growth rate; and to determine which variables were significant predictors of ADI. Annual ADI data (d...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:American journal of pharmaceutical education 2010-11, Vol.74 (10), p.1
Main Authors: Knapp, Katherine K, Shah, Bijal M, Barnett, Mitchell J
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Class Size
Correlation
Drug stores
Economic models
Economic statistics
Employment Patterns
Graduates
Growth rate
Health care policy
Labor Force
Labor Market
Maximum likelihood method
Maximum Likelihood Statistics
Numbers
Pharmaceutical Education
Pharmacists
Pharmacy
Predictor Variables
Rating Scales
Recessions
Regression (Statistics)
Retirement
Schools
Studies
Supply and Demand
Unemployment
Variables
Workforce
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Summary:To describe Aggregate Demand Index (ADI) trends from 1999-2010; to compare ADI time trends to concurrent data for US unemployment levels, US entry-level pharmacy graduates, and US retail prescription growth rate; and to determine which variables were significant predictors of ADI. Annual ADI data (dependent variable) were analyzed against annual unemployment rates, annual number of pharmacy graduates, and annual prescription growth rate (independent variables). ADI data trended toward lower demand levels for pharmacists since late 2006, paralleling the US economic downturn. National ADI data were most highly correlated with unemployment ( p < 0.001), then graduates ( p < 0.006), then prescription growth rate ( p < 0.093). A hierarchical model with the 3 variables was significant ( p = 0.019), but only unemployment was a significant ADI predictor. Unemployment and ADI also were significantly related at the regional, division, and state levels. The ADI is strongly linked to US unemployment rates. The relationship suggests that an improving economy might coincide with increased pharmacist demand. Predictable increases in future graduates and other factors support revisiting the modeling process as new data accumulate.
ISSN:0002-9459
1553-6467