Incorporating Regional Rice Production Models in a Simulation Model of Rice Importation: A Discrete Stochastic Programming Approach

In the Philippines, importation has remained as one of the most feasible options for the government to meet the growing demand for rice. It is thus imperative for the government to develop a strategy that would ensure adequate supply and minimum importation costs. One of the critical factors in impo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of Philippine development 2009-01, Vol.36 (1), p.101
Main Authors: Reyes, Celia, Mina, Christian, Crean, Jason, de Guzman, Rosalina, Parton, Kevin
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural production
Agriculture
Climate change
Costs
Drought
Econometrics
El Nino
Estimates
Fertilizers
Forecasting
Imports
Irrigation
Rain
Rice
Seasons
Simulation
Stochastic models
Studies
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Summary:In the Philippines, importation has remained as one of the most feasible options for the government to meet the growing demand for rice. It is thus imperative for the government to develop a strategy that would ensure adequate supply and minimum importation costs. One of the critical factors in import decisionmaking is rice production. This paper evaluates the significance of seasonal climate forecast (SCF) in rice policy decisions of the government, particularly on importation. The paper also demonstrates how SCF, together with these production estimates, could be incorporated in the rice import decisions of the government through the Rice Importation Simulation (RIS) model, which was developed using a Discrete Stochastic Programming modeling approach. The RIS model, which recommends a set of optimal rice import strategies, could serve as guide for the government in its rice import decisions in the face of seasonal climate variability and could be used in estimating the potential value of SCF.
ISSN:2508-0954
2508-0849