Predicting Computer Science Ph.D. Completion: A Case Study

This paper presents the results of an analysis of indicators that can be used to predict whether a student will succeed in a Computer Science Ph.D. program. The analysis was conducted by studying the records of 75 students who have been in the Computer Science Ph.D. program of the University of Alab...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:IEEE transactions on education 2009-02, Vol.52 (1), p.137-143
Main Authors: Cox, G.W., Hughes, W.E., Etzkorn, L.H., Weisskopf, M.E.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Academic Achievement
Alabama
Case Studies
College Outcomes Assessment
Computer programs
Computer science
Computer Science Education
Computer simulation
Correlation
Doctoral Degrees
Doctoral Programs
Education
Educational Indicators
Educational institutions
Engineering profession
factors affecting graduation
Graduates
Graduation Rate
Indicators
Mathematical analysis
Mathematical model
Mathematical models
Mathematics
Performance Factors
Ph.D. program
Prediction
Predictive Measurement
Predictive models
Predictive Validity
Predictor Variables
Statistical Analysis
Student Records
Students
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Summary:This paper presents the results of an analysis of indicators that can be used to predict whether a student will succeed in a Computer Science Ph.D. program. The analysis was conducted by studying the records of 75 students who have been in the Computer Science Ph.D. program of the University of Alabama in Huntsville. Seventy-seven variables were extracted from each student's record, and the variables were correlated with whether the student did or did not successfully graduate from the program. A multivariate model was developed that predicts success with a high degree of accuracy. Importantly, the model relies on variables that can be determined reasonably early in a student's Ph.D. class work, enabling its use as a selection metric. Hypotheses about the composition of the model are also presented and discussed.
ISSN:0018-9359
1557-9638
DOI:10.1109/TE.2008.921458