The Sensitivity of Northern Groundwater Recharge to Climate Change: A Case Study in Northwest Alaska

The potential impacts of climate change on northern groundwater supplies were examined at a fractured-marble mountain aquifer near Nome, Alaska. Well water surface elevations (WSE) were monitored from 2004-2009 and analyzed with local meteorological data. Future aquifer response was simulated with t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of the American Water Resources Association 2011-12, Vol.47 (6), p.1228-1240
Main Authors: Clilverd, Hannah M., White, Daniel M., Tidwell, Amy C., Rawlins, Michael A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
arctic/antarctic
Climate change
climate variability/change
Earth sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
Greenhouse gases
groundwater hydrology
Groundwater recharge
Hydrology. Hydrogeology
Pan-Arctic Water Balance Model
Precipitation
recharge
snowmelt
Temperature
Water resources
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Summary:The potential impacts of climate change on northern groundwater supplies were examined at a fractured-marble mountain aquifer near Nome, Alaska. Well water surface elevations (WSE) were monitored from 2004-2009 and analyzed with local meteorological data. Future aquifer response was simulated with the Pan-Arctic Water Balance Model (PWBM) using forcings (air temperature and precipitation) derived from fifth-generation European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global circulation model climate scenarios for extreme and modest increases in greenhouse gases. We observed changes in WSE due to the onset of spring snowmelt, low intensity and high intensity rainfall events, and aquifer head recession during the winter freeze period. Observed WSE and snow depth compared well with PWBM-simulated groundwater recharge and snow storage. Using ECHAM5-simulated increases in mean annual temperature of 4-8...C by 2099, the PWBM predicted that by 2099 later freeze-up and earlier snowmelt will decrease seasonal snow cover by one to two months. Annual evapotranspiration and precipitation are predicted to increase 27-40% (55-81 mm) and 33-42% (81-102 mm), respectively, with the proportion of snowfall in annual precipitation decreasing on average 9-25% (p < 0.05). The amount of snowmelt is not predicted to change significantly by 2099; however, a decreasing trend is evident from 2060 in the extreme ECHAM5 greenhouse gas scenario. Increases in effective precipitation were predicted to be great enough to sustain sufficient groundwater recharge. (ProQuest: ... denotes formulae/symbols omitted.)
ISSN:1093-474X
1752-1688
DOI:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00569.x