Generic Prediction Rules for Regime Change in Bimodal Processes

Several bimodal complex processes having great socio-economic impact exist in nature, yet more often than not it is non-trivial to find prediction rules for their regime change. Generic prediction rules for regime transition and duration of subsequent regime are given for several two-regime models....

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Pure and applied geophysics 2012-04, Vol.169 (4), p.755-761
Main Authors: Dwivedi, Suneet, Mittal, A. K.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Dipoles
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Economic impact
Exact sciences and technology
Geophysics
Geophysics/Geodesy
Hydrology
Hydrology. Hydrogeology
Indian
Indian Ocean
Internal geophysics
Marine
Mathematical models
Meteorology
Rain
Rainfall
Solid-earth geophysics, tectonophysics, gravimetry
Summer
Time series
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Summary:Several bimodal complex processes having great socio-economic impact exist in nature, yet more often than not it is non-trivial to find prediction rules for their regime change. Generic prediction rules for regime transition and duration of subsequent regime are given for several two-regime models. It is demonstrated that prediction rules are a universal property of a large class of bimodal processes. An effort is made to explore the applicability of generic prediction rules to real-world bimodal processes, namely the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the Indian Ocean Dipole event. Time series representative of these phenomena are analyzed to establish their bimodality and to show that prediction rules hold well for these time series also.
ISSN:0033-4553
1420-9136
DOI:10.1007/s00024-011-0346-7