Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model

• Published in: Chinese science bulletin 2012-04, Vol.57 (10), p.1188-1195
• Main Authors: Gao, XueJie, Shi, Ying, Zhang, DongFeng, Giorgi, Filippo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: air temperature; altitude; Chemistry/Food Science; China; Climate; Climate change; Climate models; Computer simulation; Earth Sciences; emissions; Engineering; Humanities and Social Sciences; latitude; Life Sciences; model validation; multidisciplinary; Northwest; Physics; Precipitation; Regional; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); 中国西北地区; 区域气候模式; 模式模拟; 气候变化; 气候变暖; 气候模型; 青藏高原; 高分辨率
• ISSN: 1001-6538; 1861-9541
• DOI: 10.1007/s11434-011-4935-8

Climate change in the 21st century over China is simulated using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3). The model is one-way nested within the global model CCSR/NIES/FRCGC MIROC3.2_hires (Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies/Frontier Research Center for Global Change/Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). A 150-year (1951–2100) transient simulation is conducted at 25 km grid spacing, under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B scenario. Simulations of present climate conditions in China by RegCM3 are compared against observations to assess model performance. Results show that RegCM3 reproduces the observed spatial structure of surface air temperature and precipitation well. Changes in mean temperature and precipitation in December–January–February (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA) during the middle and end of the 21st century are analyzed. Significant future warming is simulated by RegCM3. This warming becomes greater with time, and increased warming is simulated at high latitude and high altitude (Tibetan Plateau) areas. In the middle of the 21st century in DJF, a general increase of precipitation is found in most areas, except over the Tibetan Plateau. Precipitation changes in JJA show an increase over northwest China and a decrease over the Tibetan Plateau. There is a mixture of positive and negative changes in eastern China. The change pattern at the end of the century is generally consistent with that in mid century, except in some small areas, and the magnitude of change is usually larger. In addition, the simulation is compared with a previous simulation of the RegCM3 driven by a different global model, to address uncertainties of the projected climate change in China.