Modeling crime in Japan

This study aims at identifying the factors of aggregate and disaggregate crime categories in Japan over the period 1964–2009. All crime categories are related to police outlays, police numbers, unemployment, divorce and urbanization rates. Bounds testing approach to cointegration is implemented to t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Economic modelling 2012-09, Vol.29 (5), p.1640-1645
Main Authors: Halicioglu, Ferda, Andrés, Antonio R., Yamamura, Eiji
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Cointegration
Cointegration analysis
Crime
Economic models
Japan
Police
Studies
Time series
Unemployment
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Summary:This study aims at identifying the factors of aggregate and disaggregate crime categories in Japan over the period 1964–2009. All crime categories are related to police outlays, police numbers, unemployment, divorce and urbanization rates. Bounds testing approach to cointegration is implemented to test the existence of a long-run relationship amongst the variables. Cointegration analysis yields that the main deterrent effect on crime is the police presence and this factor is further confirmed by the real police outlays. As for the essential cause of crime, urbanization stands as the leading factor which is followed by divorce and unemployment rates. Policy implications are discussed. ► Crime categories in Japan are modelled and empirically estimated. ► The main deterrent effect on crime is the police expenditures. ► Urbanization appears to be the leading factor for crime.
ISSN:0264-9993
1873-6122
DOI:10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.026