Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: An analysis of time series data

• Published in: Agricultural systems 2012-10, Vol.112, p.11-16
• Main Authors: Sarker, Md. Abdur Rashid, Alam, Khorshed, Gow, Jeff
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bangladesh; Climate change; Oryza sativa; Rice yield; Time series analysis
• ISSN: 0308-521X; 1873-2267
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2012.06.004

► We use regression methods to analyze the impacts of climate variables on rice yields in Bangladesh. ► We find that increasing maximum and minimum temperatures affect rice yields adversely. ► Temperature tolerant rice varieties need to be developed in order to mute these adverse effects. This study examines the relationship between the yield of three major rice crops (e.g., Aus, Aman and Boro) and three main climate variables (e.g., maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall) for Bangladesh. We use time series data for the 1972–2009 period at an aggregate level to assess the relationship between climate variables and rice yield using both the ordinary least squares and median (quantile) regression methods. The findings of this study confirm that climate variables have had significant effects on rice yields but that these effects vary among three rice crops. Maximum temperature is statistically significant for all rice yields with positive effects on Aus and Aman rice and adverse effects on Boro rice. Minimum temperature has a statistically significant negative effect on Aman rice and a significantly positive effect on Boro rice. Finally, rainfall has a statistically significant effect on Aus and Aman rice. Nonetheless, the influences of maximum temperature and minimum temperature are more pronounced compared with that of rainfall. Given these effects of temperature on rice crops and increasing climate change vulnerabilities, policy makers should fund the research and development of temperature-tolerant rice varieties, particularly for Aman and Boro rice.