Diffusion of mobile telephony in India: An empirical study

Diffusion of new technology is an important driver of economic growth. In this paper, diffusion of mobile telephony in India is studied. There is a vast diffusion potential in this country which needs to be exploited efficiently and in a rational way. This paper investigates the social, technologica...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Technological forecasting & social change 2012-05, Vol.79 (4), p.709-715
Main Authors: Gupta, Ruchita, Jain, Karuna
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Business forecasts
Cellular telephones
Competition
Decisions
Diffusion
Economic Development
Epidemic
Epidemics
Forecasting
India
Internet telephony
Mathematical models
Mobile telephony
Political economy
State Intervention
Statistical analysis
Studies
Technological change
Technology
Technology adoption
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Summary:Diffusion of new technology is an important driver of economic growth. In this paper, diffusion of mobile telephony in India is studied. There is a vast diffusion potential in this country which needs to be exploited efficiently and in a rational way. This paper investigates the social, technological, economical and political (STEP) factors that have influenced the diffusion process of mobile telephony especially the diffusion speed. The epidemic model, which is widely employed in the diffusion studies of mobile telephony, is used for the study. The data is fitted into logistic, gompertz, and bass models by nonlinear least squares and it is found that gompertz model best describes the diffusion process of mobile telephony in India. The study reveals that competition and government intervention played a significant role in accelerating the diffusion speed of mobile telephony by making the technology affordable. It is found that mobile telephony is a substitute for fixed line telephony in India. The findings will be useful in taking managerial decisions with respect to factors in forecasting and controlling the diffusion process of emerging technologies.
ISSN:0040-1625
1873-5509
DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.08.003