Do professional forecasters in Asian–Pacific countries believe in the monetary neutrality?

We analyze more than 40,000 forecasts of the annual growth rate of the money supply, the inflation rate, and the growth rate for eleven Asian–Pacific countries between 1994 and 2011. We document that forecasters believe in nominal effects of future monetary policy. ► First study which analyzes perce...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Economics letters 2012-10, Vol.117 (1), p.178-181
Main Author: Rulke, J C
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Asia Pacific Region
Asian–Pacific countries
Economic forecasts
Forecasts
Growth rate
Growth rates
Inflation rate
Inflation rates
Monetary policy
Money supply
Neutrality
Quantity equation
Studies
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Summary:We analyze more than 40,000 forecasts of the annual growth rate of the money supply, the inflation rate, and the growth rate for eleven Asian–Pacific countries between 1994 and 2011. We document that forecasters believe in nominal effects of future monetary policy. ► First study which analyzes perceived monetary policy effects. ► Testing whether professional forecaster believe in the quantity equation. ► We document that forecasters expect the monetary policy to have nominal effects.
ISSN:0165-1765
1873-7374
DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.104