Complex Dependencies in the Alliance Network

The multifaceted and strategic interactions inherent in the formation of international military pacts render the alliance decisions of states highly interdependent. Our aim here is to model the network of alliances in such a way as to capture the effects of covariates and account for the complex dep...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Conflict management and peace science 2012-07, Vol.29 (3), p.279-313
Main Authors: CRANMER, SKYLER J., DESMARAIS, BRUCE A., MENNINGA, ELIZABETH J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Alliance
Alliances
Armed Forces
Decision making
Dyadic relations
Dyadics
Dyads
Graphs
Independence
Interaction
Interdependence
International alliances
International relations
Logistic regression
Military
Military alliances
Modeling
Network analysis
Networks
Regression Analysis
Treaties
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Summary:The multifaceted and strategic interactions inherent in the formation of international military pacts render the alliance decisions of states highly interdependent. Our aim here is to model the network of alliances in such a way as to capture the effects of covariates and account for the complex dependencies inherent in the network. Regression analysis, due to its foundational assumption of conditional independence, cannot be used to analyze alliance decisions specifically and interdependent decisions generally. We demonstrate how alliance decisions are interdependent and define the problems associated with the regression analysis of nonindependent dyads. We then show that alliances can naturally be conceived of as constituting a network, where alliance formation is an inherently interdependent process. We proceed by introducing the exponential random graph model for analyzing interdependence in the alliance network and estimating the effect of covariates on alliances.
ISSN:0738-8942
1549-9219
DOI:10.1177/0738894212443446