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Climate change and runoff in south-western Australia

► Runoff was projected from 15 GCMs and three warming levels over south-western Australia. ► All GCMs project a drier and hotter future in south-western Australia by 2030. ► An ensemble of rainfall-runoff models projects a median decline in runoff of 25%. ► 90th percentile projected runoff declines...

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Published in:Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam) 2012-12, Vol.475, p.441-455
Main Authors: Silberstein, R.P., Aryal, S.K., Durrant, J., Pearcey, M., Braccia, M., Charles, S.P., Boniecka, L., Hodgson, G.A., Bari, M.A., Viney, N.R., McFarlane, D.J.
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cited_by cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c396t-347f5a37ae58de28c3cb7751ea4879f59a28609ae4531dfc90ffc0de6b9a7a683
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container_title Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam)
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creator Silberstein, R.P.
Aryal, S.K.
Durrant, J.
Pearcey, M.
Braccia, M.
Charles, S.P.
Boniecka, L.
Hodgson, G.A.
Bari, M.A.
Viney, N.R.
McFarlane, D.J.
description ► Runoff was projected from 15 GCMs and three warming levels over south-western Australia. ► All GCMs project a drier and hotter future in south-western Australia by 2030. ► An ensemble of rainfall-runoff models projects a median decline in runoff of 25%. ► 90th percentile projected runoff declines 53% in the north and 40% in the south of the project area. ► Rainfall-runoff elasticity increases under projected climate scenarios. This paper presents the results of computer simulations of runoff from 13 major fresh and brackish river basins in south-western Australia (SWA) under climate projections obtained from 15 GCMs with three future global warming scenarios equivalent to global temperature rises of 0.7°C, 1.0°C and 1.3°C by 2030. The objective was to apply an efficient methodology, consistent across a large region, to examine the implications of the best available projections in climate trends for future surface water resources. An ensemble of rainfall-runoff models was calibrated on stream flow data from 1975 to 2007 from 106 gauged catchments distributed throughout the basins of the study area. The sensitivity of runoff to projected changes in mean annual rainfall is examined using the climate ‘elasticity’ concept. Averaged across the study area, all 15 GCMs project declines in rainfall under all global warming scenarios with a median decline of 8% resulting in a median decline in runoff of 25%. Such uniformity in projections from GCMs is unusual. Over SWA the average annual runoff under the 5th wettest and 5th driest of the 45 projections of the 2030 climate declines by 10 and 42%, respectively. Under the 5th driest projection the runoff decline ranges from 53% in the northern region to 40% in the southern region. Strong regional variations in climate sensitivity are found with the proportional decline in runoff greatest in the northern region and the greatest volumetric declines in the wetter basins in the south. Since the mid 1970s stream flows into the major water supply reservoirs in SWA have declined by more than 50% following a 16% rainfall reduction. This has already had major implications for water resources planning and for the preservation of aquatic and riparian ecosystems in the region. Our results indicate that this reduction in runoff is likely to continue if future climate projections eventuate.
doi_str_mv 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.02.009
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This paper presents the results of computer simulations of runoff from 13 major fresh and brackish river basins in south-western Australia (SWA) under climate projections obtained from 15 GCMs with three future global warming scenarios equivalent to global temperature rises of 0.7°C, 1.0°C and 1.3°C by 2030. The objective was to apply an efficient methodology, consistent across a large region, to examine the implications of the best available projections in climate trends for future surface water resources. An ensemble of rainfall-runoff models was calibrated on stream flow data from 1975 to 2007 from 106 gauged catchments distributed throughout the basins of the study area. The sensitivity of runoff to projected changes in mean annual rainfall is examined using the climate ‘elasticity’ concept. Averaged across the study area, all 15 GCMs project declines in rainfall under all global warming scenarios with a median decline of 8% resulting in a median decline in runoff of 25%. Such uniformity in projections from GCMs is unusual. Over SWA the average annual runoff under the 5th wettest and 5th driest of the 45 projections of the 2030 climate declines by 10 and 42%, respectively. Under the 5th driest projection the runoff decline ranges from 53% in the northern region to 40% in the southern region. Strong regional variations in climate sensitivity are found with the proportional decline in runoff greatest in the northern region and the greatest volumetric declines in the wetter basins in the south. Since the mid 1970s stream flows into the major water supply reservoirs in SWA have declined by more than 50% following a 16% rainfall reduction. This has already had major implications for water resources planning and for the preservation of aquatic and riparian ecosystems in the region. 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Such uniformity in projections from GCMs is unusual. Over SWA the average annual runoff under the 5th wettest and 5th driest of the 45 projections of the 2030 climate declines by 10 and 42%, respectively. Under the 5th driest projection the runoff decline ranges from 53% in the northern region to 40% in the southern region. Strong regional variations in climate sensitivity are found with the proportional decline in runoff greatest in the northern region and the greatest volumetric declines in the wetter basins in the south. Since the mid 1970s stream flows into the major water supply reservoirs in SWA have declined by more than 50% following a 16% rainfall reduction. This has already had major implications for water resources planning and for the preservation of aquatic and riparian ecosystems in the region. Our results indicate that this reduction in runoff is likely to continue if future climate projections eventuate.</abstract><cop>Kidlington</cop><pub>Elsevier B.V</pub><doi>10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.02.009</doi><tpages>15</tpages></addata></record>
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identifier ISSN: 0022-1694
ispartof Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam), 2012-12, Vol.475, p.441-455
issn 0022-1694
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language eng
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source ScienceDirect Freedom Collection 2022-2024
subjects Basins
Climate
computers
Earth sciences
Earth, ocean, space
ecosystems
elasticities
Exact sciences and technology
global warming
Hydrological modelling
Hydrology. Hydrogeology
Mathematical models
planning
Projection
rain
Rainfall
Reduction
Runoff
Stream flow
Streams
surface water
temperature
water reservoirs
Water resources
watersheds
title Climate change and runoff in south-western Australia
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