An epidemiological model of spatial coupling for trips longer than the infectious period

► A model of coupling between epidemic subpopulations is proposed. ► It is compared to results obtained using a transportation operator. ► We show that it can be more accurate at assessing the impact of mitigative actions. One of the standard methods of accounting for inter-population disease spread...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Mathematical biosciences 2013-03, Vol.242 (1), p.1-8
Main Authors: Brent Daniel, W., Hengartner, Nicolas W., Rivera, Michael K., Powell, Dennis R., McPherson, Timothy N.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Communicable Diseases - epidemiology
Communicable Diseases - transmission
Computer Simulation
Disease Outbreaks
Epidemiologic Methods
Epidemiology
Global
Humans
Influenza
International
Models, Theoretical
Pandemic
Transportation
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Summary:► A model of coupling between epidemic subpopulations is proposed. ► It is compared to results obtained using a transportation operator. ► We show that it can be more accurate at assessing the impact of mitigative actions. One of the standard methods of accounting for inter-population disease spread in equation-based epidemiology models is through a transportation operator. Implicit in the use of the transportation operator, however, is an assumption that daily travel volumes are small compared to overall population sizes, an assumption that can break down for modern rates of international travel or local commuter traffic. Alternative types of coupling have been proposed in the limit that trip durations are much shorter than the infectious period. We present an extension of these phenomenological models that relaxes both assumptions. We show that the approach produces more accurate results when assessing the impact of mitigative actions using modern travel volumes.
ISSN:0025-5564
1879-3134
DOI:10.1016/j.mbs.2012.11.002