Assessing methods of identifying management forecasts: CIG vs. researcher collected

• Published in: Journal of accounting & economics 2013-02, Vol.55 (1), p.23-42
• Main Authors: Chuk, Elizabeth, Matsumoto, Dawn, Miller, Gregory S.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Accounting disclosure; CIG; Data collection; Economic forecasts; Evaluation; Financial performance; Forecasts; Management guidance; Management research; Press releases; Public relations; Researchers; Studies
• ISSN: 0165-4101; 1879-1980
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2012.07.001

This paper examines the characteristics of management forecasts available on Thomson First Call’s Company Issued Guidance (CIG) database relative to a sample of forecasts hand-collected through a search of company press releases. Due to the significantly lower cost of using CIG (relative to hand-collecting data), academics have increasingly relied on this database as a source of management forecasts. However, it is important for researchers to consider the properties of this database (such as coverage, accuracy, and breadth) when evaluating whether it is an appropriate data source for their study. Overall, our results suggest systematic differences between forecasts reported on CIG and forecasts gathered from company press releases. We suggest several sample criteria that will remove or mitigate these biases. ► First study to document the systematic underreporting of forecasts in CIG. ► Demonstrates that the underreporting is systematic and biased. ► Provides insights into the potentially serious impact on future research. ► Provides a clear and concise set of recommendations for using CIG. ► Provides robustness tests to be used in all papers that rely on CIG.