Time series of scientific growth in Spanish doctoral theses (1848–2009)

This article analyses scientific growth time series using data for Spanish doctoral theses from 1848 to 2009, retrieved from national databases and an in-depth archive search. Data are classified into subseries by historical periods. The analytical techniques employed range from visual analysis of d...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientometrics 2012-04, Vol.91 (1), p.15-36
Main Authors: Fernández-Cano, Antonio, Torralbo, Manuel, Vallejo, Mónica
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bibliometrics
Bibliometrics. Scientometrics
Bibliometrics. Scientometrics. Evaluation
Computer Science
Exact sciences and technology
Growth of literature
Information and communication sciences
Information science. Documentation
Information Storage and Retrieval
Library and information science. General aspects
Library Science
Scholarly publishing
Sciences and techniques of general use
Spain
Theses
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Summary:This article analyses scientific growth time series using data for Spanish doctoral theses from 1848 to 2009, retrieved from national databases and an in-depth archive search. Data are classified into subseries by historical periods. The analytical techniques employed range from visual analysis of deterministic graphs to curve-fitting with exponential smoothing and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average models. Forecasts are made using the best model. The main finding is that Spanish output of doctoral theses appears to fit a quasi-logistic growth model in line with Price’s predictions. An additional control variable termed year-on-year General Welfare is shown to modulate scientific growth, especially in the historical period from 1899 to 1939.
ISSN:0138-9130
1588-2861
DOI:10.1007/s11192-011-0572-x