Time series of scientific growth in Spanish doctoral theses (1848–2009)

• Published in: Scientometrics 2012-04, Vol.91 (1), p.15-36
• Main Authors: Fernández-Cano, Antonio, Torralbo, Manuel, Vallejo, Mónica
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bibliometrics; Bibliometrics. Scientometrics; Bibliometrics. Scientometrics. Evaluation; Computer Science; Exact sciences and technology; Growth of literature; Information and communication sciences; Information science. Documentation; Information Storage and Retrieval; Library and information science. General aspects; Library Science; Scholarly publishing; Sciences and techniques of general use; Spain; Theses
• ISSN: 0138-9130; 1588-2861
• DOI: 10.1007/s11192-011-0572-x

This article analyses scientific growth time series using data for Spanish doctoral theses from 1848 to 2009, retrieved from national databases and an in-depth archive search. Data are classified into subseries by historical periods. The analytical techniques employed range from visual analysis of deterministic graphs to curve-fitting with exponential smoothing and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average models. Forecasts are made using the best model. The main finding is that Spanish output of doctoral theses appears to fit a quasi-logistic growth model in line with Price’s predictions. An additional control variable termed year-on-year General Welfare is shown to modulate scientific growth, especially in the historical period from 1899 to 1939.