Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRI-AGCMs

New and previous versions of the high-resolution 20- and 60-km-mesh Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation models are used to investigate potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the North Indian Ocean (NIO). Fifteen ensemble experiments are performed...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climate dynamics 2013-04, Vol.40 (7-8), p.1949-1968
Main Authors: Murakami, Hiroyuki, Sugi, Masato, Kitoh, Akio
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmospheric circulation
Climate change
Climatology
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
Cyclones
Dynamic meteorology
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Environmental aspects
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Geophysics/Geodesy
Global warming
Meteorological research
Meteorology
Monsoons
Oceanography
Oceans
Rainforests
Seasonal variations
Seasons
Tropical cyclones
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Summary:New and previous versions of the high-resolution 20- and 60-km-mesh Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation models are used to investigate potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the North Indian Ocean (NIO). Fifteen ensemble experiments are performed under the International Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. Most of the ensemble future (2075–2099) experiments do not project significant future changes in the basin-scale TC genesis number; however, they commonly show a substantial increase (by 46 %) in TC frequency over the Arabian Sea and a decrease (by 31 %) in the Bay of Bengal. Projected future changes in TC genesis frequency show a marked seasonal variation in the NIO: a significant and robust reduction during the pre-monsoon season, an increase during the peak-monsoon season, and a westward shift during the post-monsoon season. Several large-scale thermodynamic and dynamical parameters are analysed to elucidate the physical mechanism responsible for the future changes in TC activity; this analysis reveals a seasonal dependence of the relative contribution of these parameters to the projected future changes in TC genesis frequency.
ISSN:0930-7575
1432-0894
DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1407-z